Bitcoin has surged to within striking distance of $100,000, a psychological milestone that once seemed unimaginable. As the world's largest cryptocurrency approaches this historic level, we present the strongest arguments from both bulls and bears.
Where We Stand
Bitcoin is trading near $98,000 as of February 2026, up approximately 35% from a year ago. The rally has been driven by institutional adoption through spot ETFs, the April 2024 halving supply reduction, and growing recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value. Daily trading volumes have reached record levels across major exchanges.
The Bull Case
Institutional Adoption
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $50 billion in cumulative inflows since their January 2024 launch. Major financial institutions including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs now offer Bitcoin investment products. This institutional infrastructure makes Bitcoin accessible to pension funds, endowments, and retail investors through traditional brokerage accounts.
Supply Dynamics
The April 2024 halving reduced Bitcoin's new supply issuance by 50%. With approximately 19.6 million of 21 million Bitcoin already mined, the combination of fixed supply and increasing demand creates a favorable supply-demand dynamic. Long-term holders continue to accumulate, reducing the available supply on exchanges.
Macro Tailwinds
Federal Reserve rate cuts reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. Growing concerns about fiscal deficits and currency debasement drive demand for hard money alternatives. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional assets remains low, making it an effective portfolio diversifier.
The Bear Case
Valuation Concerns
Bitcoin generates no cash flows and has no intrinsic value model, making fair value estimation impossible. At nearly $2 trillion market cap, Bitcoin is larger than most public companies. Previous cycles have shown that parabolic price increases are typically followed by 50-80% drawdowns.
Regulatory Risk
While regulatory clarity has improved in the U.S., global regulations remain inconsistent. Potential restrictions on mining, self-custody, or usage could impact adoption. Increased regulation of stablecoins and DeFi could also affect the broader crypto ecosystem that supports Bitcoin trading.
Competition and Technology Risk
While Bitcoin maintains its dominance as a store of value, competing cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) could erode its narrative advantage. Technological vulnerabilities, though unlikely given Bitcoin's proven security track record, represent a tail risk that cannot be completely dismissed.
Our Assessment
On balance, we believe the structural tailwinds favor Bitcoin's continued appreciation, though the path will not be smooth. The institutionalization of Bitcoin through ETFs represents a fundamental shift that provides a demand floor that did not exist in previous cycles. However, short-term volatility should be expected, and position sizing should reflect the asset's risk profile.
Conclusion
Bitcoin at $100,000 represents a milestone in the asset's maturation from a speculative curiosity to a recognized financial asset. Whether you are bullish or bearish, the crypto market has evolved significantly, and Bitcoin's role in the global financial system continues to expand. Investors should form their own views based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Stock News Plus Editorial
Expert financial analysis and market insights from the Stock News Plus editorial team.